The World Bank’s verdict: Nigeria’s reform engine is turning over

For two years the government has asked Nigerians to trust that the pain of reform would turn into progress. This month, one of the world’s most closely watched economic referees offered its own assessment, and on the main measures it was positive.

The World Bank’s October 2026 Nigeria Development Update is titled Beyond the Federal Purse: How Higher Revenues Reshaped State Priorities. It reports that the economy grew by 4.2 per cent in the first half of 2026, up from 3.9 per cent a year earlier. The Bank notes that this happened despite the conflict in the Middle East.

Forecasts move up

In its separate Africa Economic Update, the Bank raised its forecast for Nigeria’s 2026 growth to 4.3 per cent. It projects 4.4 per cent for 2027 and 2028. It names financial services, ICT and real estate as the drivers. Many young Nigerians are drawn to those sectors.

States are the big winners

The update’s headline finding is about where the money has gone. Federation revenues rose 69 per cent in real terms between 2023 and 2025, and the Bank says states were the biggest winners. In practice, the reforms have put more money in state budgets, closer to the clinics, classrooms and roads people use every day.

The country’s buffers are stronger too. Gross external reserves rose from $45.5 billion at the end of 2025 to $53.8 billion at the end of August 2026.

On track, with a caveat

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu said the report shows the reform programme is on track. In fairness, the Bank’s message also comes with conditions. It says the gains must be sustained, and inflation remains elevated even though it is falling.

For young Nigerians, that caveat points to the next task. Growth figures matter most when they show up as jobs, stable prices and better services. The Bank’s report suggests the foundations are in place, and the coming months will show how much of that reaches households.